Thursday, April 2, 2009

NQ: [ No Bradley effect ]

Today the American Association for Public Opinion Research Ad Hoc Committee on the 2008 Presidential Primary Polling released a pdf report on the methodologies utilized by pollsters during the Democratic primaries. It is a long report, and a cursory analysis of it is available at  [....]

And here is what their extensive and rigorous report found (pages 53-54):

Several compelling pieces of evidence suggest that the New Hampshire estimation errors were probably not caused by the “Bradley effect” – or the tendency for respondents to report a preference for a black candidate (Obama) but vote instead for a white opponent. A meta-analysis by Hopkins (2008) indicates that while the Bradley effect did undermine some state-level polls in previous decades, there is no evidence for such an effect in recent years.

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